What the Tea Party Polls Really Tell Us

Tea Party supporters (and by default Republicans) are ecstatic after recent polls showing that nearly 1/2 of voters agree with at least some of their positions. Some inside and outside the movement are reading this as a clear sign that this could be viable Third-Party movement in the elections of 2010 and 2012. But I think not. Why?

One must pay very close attention to a variety of polls, the actual questions asked, and what they really mean in order to decipher what is really going on. And the fact of the matter is that these poll results don't have anything good to say for the two major parties or the Tea Party.

Let's start with the Tea Party. If they are striking such a chord in the political heart of America, why do they only poll favorably at around 45-50% at best? Even more importantly, how can they expect to overtake the two parties with what are very high negative numbers? An even greater question is how can they expect any real success when their premier "candidate" Sarah Palin is believed to be qualified for President by only 29% of all Americans and by less than half of conservatives! To think that any other Tea Party candidate can generate numbers greater than Palin's to become a viable national candidate isn't even reasonable.  But, Tea Party supporters respond, many Americans agree with us on many issues. That is true, but they are misreading the importance of that fact. Given that most Americans are actually moderates, many voters will answer that they agree with numerous positions of Republicans and  Democrats as well. Agreement on "some" issues will be insufficent to build a foundation solid enough to elect candidates outside of the two party framework. Tea Party supporters are likely to be limited to impacting local races and a few Congressional races.

This brings us to what the numbers mean for Republicans. While many Republican leaders are hyping recent poll numbers as favorable to the conservative party, the truth is they should be greatly concerned that the Tea Party movement could blunt what ought to be mid-term election gains. Tea Party supporters are only slightly less unhappy with Republicans than they are with Democrats. Given the fact that Tea Party supporters are overwhelmingly conservative, if they choose to participate within the two party system it will be within the Republican Party. The problem for Republicans is that the Tea Party is far more extreme than most Republican candidates. When the primary season comes, the Tea Party is likely to force competitive primaries in which candidates that are far more conservative are selected. Unfortunately for Republicans, the more extreme a candidate is (whether conservative or liberal), the less electable they become. The result is that a combination of misreading voter angst as a significant move to the right and the uncompromising views of the Tea Party will lead to the presentation of candidates with a lower ability to actually win elections.

So, should Democrats feel good about these facts? Absolutely not! The truth is that Congress (both parties) has lower approval ratings than either party as a whole or than President Obama. The Tea Party movement is more reflective of a general discontent in the nation that leaders of all types (political, financial, business, insurance, etc) are failing miserably in working for the good of the nation. Until some segment of American leadership steps up and shows they are actually working for the people, polls are likely to vascillate wildly between the three choices. This is where the battle for political control will really be won. At this point, neither the Democrats or Republicans, nor the Tea Party should feel confident about their political fortunes. The reality is that at this point anything could happen. Democrats could still salvage their majority. Republicans certainly have a golden opportunity to improve their position. And the Tea Party could muddle up the whole system, especially for Republicans.